Deanna McMullen's Blog

This week brings us the release of seven important economic reports or news releases in addition to two Treasury auctions that may influence rates. Three of the seven are considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate or low importance to the markets.

The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report late tomorrow morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S. during April, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a moderate increase in sales between March and April.

The Conference Board will start the week's more important releases by posting their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM Tuesday. This is one of the more important releases of the week because is measures consumer willingness to spend. If the index rises, it indicates that consumers feel better about their personal financial situations and are more apt to make large purchases. If confidence is sliding, analysts think consumer spending may slow in the near future. The latter is good news for the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline should boost bond prices and push mortgage rates lower Tuesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 58.3 after April's 57.9 reading.

We will get two monthly reports Wednesday morning. The more important of the two is April's Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 1.4%. If this report shows a larger than expected rise, we should see mortgage rates move highe r because it indicates manufacturing growth. If it shows a smaller than expected increase, we could see rates improve Wednesday.

April's New Home Sales data will be released late Wednesday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. It is expected to show an increase in sales.

The first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 AM Thursday. The second revision to this report comes next month but isn't expected to have much of an impact on the financial markets. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 3.2% increase in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect a sligh t upward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 3.3% rate of growth. If the upward revision is much stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher.

April's Personal Income and Outlays data is the first of two reports due Friday. It will be posted at 8:30 AM and gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. An increase in income means that consumers have more money available to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can cause movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a 0.4% increase in income and a 0.3% rise in spending. Weaker readings would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the day and the last relevant data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentimen t for May. It is forecasted to show a small increase from this month's preliminary reading of 73.3. A reading above 73.7 would be considered negative for bonds.

Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. The big reports of the week are Tuesday's CCI and Wednesday's Durable Goods Orders. If Thursday's GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year Note sale is Wednesday and the 7-year Note auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors.

The bond market will close early Friday afternoon ahead of next Monday's Memorial Day holiday. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, especially if there is more volatility in the stock markets, so ple ase proceed extremely cautiously if still floating an interest rate.

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Last Tuesday the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the Q1 median price for existing homes was up in 91 out of 152 metro areas compared to a year ago, showing the housing market is starting to stabilize. This was a nice gain over Q4 of last year when prices were up in only about 40% of the cities tracked. Even more encouraging, the percentage price increases in 29 cities were in double-digits.

The NAR also reported that existing home sales of single-family homes and condos were UP 11.4% in Q1 compared to a year ago. Sales increased in 44 states and Washington, D.C., with over 70% reporting double-digit percentage gains.

Long-term forecasts were also revised slightly downward by the NAR, but the numbers are still good. They see existing home sales UP 4.3% this year and UP 5.1% for 2011, with the median resale home price UP 2.5% for 2010 and UP 3.7% in 2011. New single-family home sales are forecast to rise 6.9% in 2010 and a whopping 42.0% next year. Median new home prices will be up 3.3% this year and 4.7% the next.

>> Review of Last Week

ANOTHER EUROPEAN TRIP... Europe's fiscal shenanigans were in the news again and they took the markets on a trip north, then turned them sharply south to end the week. The gains came after Sunday's announcement of a major Euro-zone rescue package. But as the week wore on, concerns over whether individual countries would put the necessary austerity measures in place sent stocks down, though the market indexes ended the week with strong gains.

If you could take your mind off Europe, there were plenty of reasons to feel positive about the U.S. economic situation. Wednesday, the March trade deficit came in as expected, up $1.0 billion to $40.4 billion, thanks to the strength of our recovery pushing imports up faster than exports. Best of all, the report showed our total volume of international trade was up 3.1% for the month and up 24% since it hit bottom a year ago April.

On the jobs front, the four-week moving average inched down for both initial and continuing unemployment claims. Then Friday came the news retail sales were UP 0.4% for April and UP 0.9% including upward revisions to February/March. For the last six months, retail sales are up at a 10.7% annual rate, 10.3% excluding autos, showing the consumer is certainly alive and well. Finally, industrial production was UP 0.8% for April, as manufacturing continues to boom, up at a 9.5% annual rate since its low last June.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.3%, to 10620.16; the S&P 500 was UP 2.2%, to 1135.68; and the Nasdaq was UP.6%, to 2346.85.

Worried about Europe, investors flocked to the safety and bargains they found in bonds. Friday's drop in stocks pushed bond prices up nicely. So even though we had good economic data on Friday, the week ended on an up note. The FNMA 30-year 4.5% bond we watch closed UP 9 basis points for the week, ending at $101.59. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, national average fixed-rate mortgages dipped to their lowest levels of the year.

>> This Week’s Forecast

HOMES, INFLATION--WHAT'S GOING UP?... Housing Starts and Building Permits reports will tell us where new home construction is headed and the expectation is those numbers will continue to trend upward. We'll see if inflation is going up too, with the wholesale PPI on Tuesday, followed by consumer CPI inflation on Wednesday. Most experts feel inflation remains under control. The week will be bookended with reads on New York and Philadelphia manufacturing, which should continue to show a strong recovery for the sector.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of May 17 – May 21

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Economists are now moving back to the idea the Fed will indeed keep rates where they are for an "extended period" as long as inflation remains in check. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

RISMEDIA, April 29, 2010—The expiration of the 2010 Home Buyer Tax Credits on April 30 is unlikely to put off Americans looking to purchase homes who believe now is a good time to buy and are confident that home prices will rise according to a survey released by Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, Inc., a Prudential Financial, Inc. company. The survey of 1,000 Americans between the ages of 25-64 with at least $35,000 household income was conducted during April 15-20, 2010.

More than 90% of consumers believe that the home buyer tax credits have helped both first-time home buyers and the U.S. housing market overall. Among consumers actually shopping for homes, 65% believe that the end of the tax credits will have little or no effect on their interest in purchasing a home.

While consumers remain unsure about the direction of the housing market, the survey reveals that they are optimistic about real estate values with 46% of consumers expecting real estate prices in their area to increase over the next year. Just 12% expect prices will decline. Over the next five years, 79% expect real estate prices to increase, with 20% expecting prices to increase substantially.

“The survey underscores the key role the federal home buyer tax credits played in stimulating residential real estate market activity and the U.S. economy,” said James Mallozzi, chairman and chief executive officer of Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, Inc. “It also shows that most consumers believe the market has hit bottom and are more optimistic about the future.”

Survey respondents identified concerns about rising mortgage interest rates and unemployment as the most important factors affecting their decision to purchase a home, along with more stringent lending criteria and fewer mortgage-backed securities purchased by the Federal Reserve. The expiration of the tax credits placed lowest on their list of concerns. Among those who have recently purchased a home, 61% cited low mortgage interest rates as “very important” to their decisions – an amount greater than either the tax credit or even cheaper prices. The 66% expecting interest rates to rise underscores potential headwinds for the market.

“The tax credits clearly helped stimulate the market when consumer confidence was low and housing inventory was high,” said Earl Lee, president, Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, Inc. “While the tax credit expiration is a concern for many, the bigger issues now are the availability and cost of financing as well as if they will have a job.”

Despite the significant downturn in the real estate market, the survey underscores that the dream of homeownership and the perception that owning a home is a good investment remain intact. Among current renters, 75% still believe owning their home is a better long-term choice for their needs than renting.

The majority of consumers also believe that homeownership is a better investment than individual stocks or bonds (75%), mutual funds (72%), or savings accounts (74%).

“The real estate market is precariously balanced. Consumers are clearly motivated to take advantage of the opportunities the current low interest rates and prices afford,” Lee notes. “While the market is picking up in terms of sales and confidence, and the majority still believe that owning a home is a good investment, the outlook for the market remains highly dependent upon the direction of the economy overall.”